Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
